pnwscm60.github.io

Realtime estimation of Rt in Switzerland

We calculate the actual Rt using the data delivered to ECDC by the BAG at the end of each day. We will not update these data on weekends, as data quality on weekends is low. To calculate the actual Rt, we use the methods described by Kevin Systrom about realtime estimation of Rt, based on a paper by Bettencourt & Ribeiro, «Real Time Bayesian Estimation of the Epidemic Potential of Emerging Infectious Diseases». We used a serial interval of 5.2 (Althaus CL) instead of 4 and used R instead of Python. We show the last 35 data points (about 5 weeks). Data are taken from ECDC.

CAVE: Some cantons deliver data one day later only, some cantons deliver data of the day at noon. Data for the last few days are often corrected 2–3 days later, especially after weekends. This is an estimation of Rt only.

Estimated Rt for Switzerland per 4th of Mai. Yellow: Highest density interval (95%).

This estimation is in line with the newly published effective reproduction number by the Swiss national Covid-19 Sciensce Task Force.